Considerations for Dryland
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Considerations for Dryland

PROMISING CONDITIONS AHEAD FOR DRYLAND COTTON

The most recent rainfall outlook released by BOM shows much of central and eastern Australia is predicted to receive above rainfall for the months of September through to December. This, along with a wetter than average winter, is leading up to what could be ideal planting conditions for dryland cotton. With prices remaining steady, dryland cotton is becoming a very attractive option for the 2022-23 season.

DRYLAND COTTON – LESS RISK

  • Steady prices.
  • Improved CSD varieties containing Bollgard® 3 and Roundup Ready® Flex biotechnology.
  • Bayer’s End Point Royalty payment scheme.

A COMPARISON EXAMPLE – DRYLAND COTTON VS SORGHUM

Table 1 shows the actual yields and estimated returns for a dryland cotton grower located between Goondiwindi and Moree, who uses both dryland cotton and sorghum in his rotation. Annually, the farm has areas sown to both crops, based on a five-year rotation program.

Some comments about the comparisons:

  • Yield: actual farm averages for both crops in a similar planting window.
  • Prices: actual farm prices after premium/discounts. Cotton includes seed proceeds and discounts or premiums.
  • Variable costs*: Using CSD’s Dryland Gross Margin Budgets.
  • Row configuration: cotton: double skip; sorghum: solid (1m).

It should be noted that the yields, growing costs and commodity price fluctuate from season to season. The average yield for the cotton is 3.45 b/ha with a range of 1.5 – 5.6 b/ha (higher yields when rain fell in the new year). The average yield for sorghum is similar in tonnes, at 3.40 t/ha (higher yields when rain fell before the end of December).

10 Year Average Cotton Sorghum
Yield 3.45 b/ha 3.40 t/ha
Price $481 per bale $223 per tonne
Variable Costs/Ha* $925 $424
Gross Margin/Ha $756 $320

Table 1: Average dryland cotton vs sorghum analysis (average of 11 years: 2007-2017).

WHAT CONCLUSIONS CAN BE DRAWN FROM THIS ANALYSIS?

  1. Dryland cotton in this rotational cycle is 58% more profitable than sorghum (over the past eleven summer seasons).
  2. It highlights the importance of having dryland cotton in the rotational program each year to ride out the difficult years and take advantage of the years when price and seasonal conditions combine.
  3. A mixture of both cotton and sorghum in the summer rotation program provides opportunity to benefit from in-crop rainfall – whenever it falls in a particular season. It also is an avenue for disease and weed breaks which are important in modern farming practices.

Over time, cotton’s profitability has been proven to surpass other rotational options as long as costs are kept in check and reasonable yields and quality are achieved. On an annual basis, the profitability of any crop will rise and fall due to market forces and seasonal conditions. However, when examined over the full term of a rotational cycle, dryland cotton has proven to consistently provide the highest gross margin return.

Critically, it should be noted that soil moisture is the limiting resource for all dryland farmers regardless of what crop is grown. The profitability of a particular crop is dependent on its ability to turn soil moisture into yield and therefore returns. In essence we are farming soil moisture, exemplified by the prevalence of minimum tillage and controlled traffic farming practices. The aim should be to get the best return from every millimetre of moisture available.

COMPARISON OF PLANTING AND PICKING PRICE OVER TIME

It’s important to note that commodity prices at planting time have a large influence on the crop chosen. Dryland cotton growers cannot forward sell with the surety that their irrigated counterparts have, due to their reliance on seasonal rainfall.

Australian cotton production has very little influence on the international price of cotton. Cotton prices can fluctuate largely throughout the growing season where international forces and the Australian dollar can alter the price daily.

Year Lint price ($/b) at 1st September Farm return post harvest ($/b)
2009 $400 $494
2010 $519 $514
2011 $495 $491
2012 $400 $467
2013 $502 $525
2014 $412 $518
2015 $484 $430
2016 $504 $545
2017 $503 $580 
2018 $626 $578
2019 $522 $506
2020 $490 $640

Table 2: Comparison of price at planting vs final received (12 year analysis) (seed receipts not included).

CHOICE OF VARIETY

Growers should choose a dryland variety with a proven track record in yield and fibre quality over a range of seasons.

The varieties offered by CSD have varying season lengths, depending on where and when planting will take place.

The CSD Variety Comparison Tool compares yield and quality data from all CSD dryland variety trials over several regions and growing years. Table 3 demonstrates the output of this tool, tabulated to show the performance of Sicot 748B3F, Sicot 714B3F and Sicot 746B3F resulting from the CSD variety trial program over the past three seasons.

  Sicot 746B3F Sicot 748B3F Sicot 714B3F
Yield (b/ha) 3.34 3.33 3.46
Length 1.10 1.11 1.10
Micronaire 4.39 4.45 4.28
Strength 29.72 29.57 29.24
Turnout 42.89 41.46 41.46
Uniformity 78.1 79.5 79.5

Table 3: Variety performance comparison summary of 79 trials, spanning seven years and eighteen regions.

STANDOUT DRYLAND VARIETY CHOICES

As dryland growers are dependent on rainfall to produce yield, a variety needs to be able to respond to favourable conditions if and when they occur. The ideal variety is a vigorous, longer season variety, which will be able to hang on in dry times and then rebound and quickly put on yield when rain arrives.

Sicot 748B3F is derived from Sicot 74BRF, and has the characteristics if yield potential fibre quality package which is desirable in dryland production. It is a full season indeterminate variety which has a vigorous growth habit and may require growth monitoring and management to ensure plants don’t get too tall. As with all low-density varieties, care should be taken when planting this variety and an additional one to two seeds per metre be planted to ensure a desired plant population is achieved.

Sicot 746B3F also has a Sicot 74BRF background. It is a full season indeterminate variety which is best managed to reduce any stress events, which can be particularly difficult in a dryland farming setting. In CSD’s variety trials, Sicot 746B3F has shown some increased sensitivity to the extreme heat of some western regions, so is more suitable to the milder conditions of the eastern growing regions. CSD dryland variety trial results have also shown a slight reduction in length compared to Sicot 748B3F. As is the case with Sicot 748B3F, Sicot 746B3F is a low-density seed variety and will therefore require extra care and favourable conditions to achieve the desired establishment. This characteristic does however translate to an increased turnout percentage.

Sicot 714B3F has a background from Sicot 71BRF and is a mid to full season maturing variety which has historically performed well in dryland production areas. It achieved an impressive yield result from the Bongeen variety trial in 2016/17 yielding 11.69 b/ha on a single skip configuration. Sicot 714B3F has also demonstrated superior  establishment in dryland conditions over Sicot 748B3F. Therefore, in marginal planting conditions, Sicot 714B3F is a preferable option in terms of gaining a viable plant stand. It will be well suited in all growing regions but may offer a high yielding option for short season areas. Care should be taken in crop management immediately post flowering as this variety quickly accumulates fruit. Amassing a high boll load in a short period of time will stress late season boll retention as well as predisposing this variety to late season premature senescence.

Relationship between the yield of Sicot 748B3F in CSD trials and effective rainfall.

Relationship between the yield of Sicot 748B3F in CSD trials and effective rainfall.

ROW CONFIGURATION – THE DECISION PROCESS

Selecting the right planting row configuration is a critical factor when planning for dryland cotton. Depending on seasonal factors, it will impact on the final yield, fibre quality and the profitability of your crop. There is no one row configuration that suits all situations; however, choosing the right configuration is a calculation involving yield expectations, water availability, plant available water holding capacity (PAWC), risk aversion, how the row configuration fits into machinery wheel spacing available, and the reliability of the seasonal climatic outlook.

  1. PAWC – the amount of water that soil can hold is a critical factor in the crop’s potential success and a grower’s row configuration choice. Row configuration selection is about managing the soil water bucket. In low PAWC scenarios of between 150-180cm, wider row configurations should be employed, whereas in high PAWC  situations, tighter/narrower configurations are better options.
  2. Planting date – In most regions, planting later into the planting window is better for yield potential on average. In dryland cotton, your choice of planting date is very
    much dependent on when planting rains occur. Planting early in the window can expose dryland crops to December/January heat as well as extending the time before summer storms/rainfall arrives. As a general rule of thumb, wider row configurations can be employed when planting earlier, to extend the bucket of soil moisture available to the crop, especially around flowering. Late season plantings can have an issue with reaching maturity before inclement weather hinders harvest, so the season length can be managed using tighter row configurations. As the dryland cotton industry expands into new regions, the definition of what constitutes early, mid and late planting date for each locality will vary significantly. It is important to consult with your agronomist to discuss how your region and planting date interact.
  3. Forecast/risk profile – Regions and seasons have different risk profiles. Naturally, in hotter regions and drier years, wider row configurations will enable the cotton plants to access more soil moisture and maintain both yield and fibre quality. Tighter configurations allow the yield potential to be maximised for wetter years and cooler regions. The diagram to the right illustrates the interaction of these three variables in a matrix. If your situation falls within the red shaded area then a wider row configuration such as super single may be a consideration. The orange, yellow and green sections, for which the majority of dryland cotton planting occurs, highlights
    considerations for either double or single skip planting options. The blue area would get the best result using a solid planted configuration. The decision is ultimately based on an individual’s attitude to risk and seasonal forecasts.
Components of the dryland cotton row configuration decision making process.

Figure 1: Components of the dryland cotton row configuration decision making process.

ROW CONFIGURATION AS A RISK MANAGEMENT TOOL

There is an important interaction between row configuration, yield potential and fibre quality. As the row configuration widens, inherently there is the potential for less yield in better seasons, and this difference can be quite large. However, wider configurations yield similar to tighter configurations in harder years, while being better able to maintain base grade fibre quality. Therefore, varying row configuration is a method by which yield can be secured and quality discounts minimised. There is also an opportunity to
manage variable costs. The combination of these factors reduces the risk of growing dryland cotton.

The relationship between yield and fibre quality in dryland cotton is shown in graph to the right – a summary of 77 dryland row configuration trials conducted by CSD since 2016. Please note that, within many cases in these trials, the final yield was not significantly affected by the choice of row configuration.

Additionally, the use of row configuration is a method by which season length can be managed. In dryland cotton, the length of the growing season, and more critically the flowering period, is important. The longer the flowering period can be extended, the higher the yield potential because there is more moisture to access. This has the added benefit of opening up more of the time in which to utilise summer rainfall.

The NAWF vs Day Degree graph to the right highlights that there was a 200-day degree difference between cut out of the single and double skip, and a 340-day degree difference between the super single row configuration and solid planting scenario in these trials.

Relationship between dryland cotton yield and fibre length (Sicot 748B3F).

Figure 2: Relationship between dryland cotton yield and fibre length (Sicot 748B3F).

Relationship between dryland cotton row configuration and the length of the<br />
flowering period.

Figure 3: Relationship between dryland cotton row configuration and the length of the flowering period.

HOW DOES ROW CONFIGURATION AFFECT THE GROSS MARGIN?

The example in Figure 4 looks at different growing scenarios, and the influence of four planting row configurations on the final gross margin.

Yellow line/squares: In this scenario, representing a very tough growing season, yields for all row configurations are very similar at about 1.5 b/ha. However, the super single configuration is still able to post a break even gross margin.

Red line/squares: This represents the average growing conditions experienced over past summers. As the line is very close to horizontal, this
means there is minimal difference in gross margin between the four row configurations. The level of production risk is quite varied between each.

Blue line: High risk is associated with the solid plant where the grower is heavily reliant on more frequent rainfall to ensure yield and fibre quality are maintained. There is less risk associated with the double and super single scenarios, as the plants would have more soil to forage for moisture, to help to maintain their yield and fibre quality. Timing of in crop rainfall would also be less critical. The financial outlay to grow the crop is also less in the wider skip configurations. Thus, for considerably lower risk, the same amount of money is returning to the farming operation per hectare.

Green line/squares: This shows the potential upside under very good seasonal conditions. Note that even as the yield of the solid plant increases it still does not give a dramatically better return to the operation as both single and double skip stay close to it. Consequently, at yield levels below 4 b/ha, a wider skip row configuration
will give the better dollar return; at higher yield level potentials, tighter configurations will be more favourable.

 Dryland cotton yield and row configuration sensitivity analysis ($500 lint and seed<br />
ex-gin).

Figure 4: Dryland cotton yield and row configuration sensitivity analysis ($500 lint and seed ex-gin).

Figure 5: Yield potential for dryland cotton growing districts and planting date.

Figure 5: Yield potential for dryland cotton growing districts and planting date.

THE BEST TIME TO PLANT DRYLAND COTTON

In general, planting later during the Bollgard® 3 window will result in better yield results. However, if moisture conditions are ideal now, any delay in planting means relying on the likelihood of additional rainfall.

PRODUCTION RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH PLANTING EARLY

Planting early can extend the growing season – the length of time the crop needs to be supplied with adequate moisture from the soil profile. For average season length (plant-maturity), crop water use of early planted crops is 10% longer/higher than those planted at the end of the planting window for the same row configuration.

Earlier planted crops will be in peak flower during the hottest months of the year, meaning peak crop water demand will coincide with peak evaporative demand. Therefore, it is critical that adequate soil moisture or rainfall is available during this period for maintaining both yield and fibre length. The season length of the crop can be manipulated through variety choice, row configuration, or a combination of both.

© Cotton Seed Distributors Ltd 2022. General guide only; not comprehensive or specific technical advice. Circumstances vary from farm to farm. To the fullest extent permitted by law, CSD expressly disclaims all liability for any loss or damage arising from reliance upon any information, statement or opinion in this document or from any errors or omissions in this document. Roundup Ready Flex®, Roundup Ready®, Bollgard II® and Bollgard® 3 are registered trademarks of Monsanto Technologies LLC, used under licence by Monsanto Australia Ltd. Insect control technology incorporated into these seeds is commercialised under a licence from Syngenta Crop Protection AG. Sicot, Sicala, Siokra and Sipima cotton varieties are a result of a joint venture research program, Cotton Breeding Australia, conducted by CSIRO and Cotton Seed Distributors Ltd (CSD). CSD is a partner in the CottonInfo joint venture, in partnership with Cotton Research Development Corporation and Cotton Australia.